Glossary
Scenario analysis

Scenario analysis

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Definition

Climate scenario analysis is the practice of testing an asset or portfolio against several plausible climate futures — for example a 1.5°C, 2°C, or 4°C world — to see how losses and value change under each.

Example in context

You're an ESG officer preparing a board paper. Running the portfolio through a 2°C and a 4°C pathway shows which holdings stay resilient and which lose a fifth of their value, turning a vague worry into a ranked watchlist.

Why it matters

It's not a forecast; it's a stress test — and it's central to TCFD and IFRS S2 disclosure as well as internal strategy. Skip it and you're blind to how the portfolio behaves as warming accelerates. EarthScan runs scenario analysis across every site using standard pathways.

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FAQ

Is climate scenario analysis a forecast?

No — it's a stress test across plausible futures to reveal where losses appear, not a prediction of which future will occur.

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