Glossary
Probabilistic modelling
Probabilistic modelling
Which climate risk platform is right for your business?
CONTENTS
Probabilistic modelling is a way of estimating future outcomes using probability distributions instead of fixed values. It allows for uncertainty and generates a range of possible scenarios.
Example in context
When assessing future flood risk, a deterministic model might show a single expected water level. A probabilistic model, like the one used in EarthScan, shows a full range of flood depths with associated probabilities, offering a clearer view of potential outcomes.
Why it matters
Climate risk is uncertain by nature. Probabilistic models help organisations make better decisions by accounting for a wide range of possible futures, rather than relying on averages or single-point forecasts.
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