Development of Climate Risks and Resilience Technologies for the Expansion of Green Energy in Spain
01/12/2025 - 30/11/2028
The PRISMAS project focuses on two foundational pillars of the electricity matrix: generation and transmission of energy. The sources of generation under evaluation include hydropower, wind, and solar energy, considered key pillars in the transition towards more sustainable energy systems. For hydropower, risks related to prolonged droughts and shifts in precipitation patterns will be analyzed. For wind and solar power, risks will include lightning strikes and hailstorms. For transmission lines, the analysis will focus on the impacts of atmospheric discharges and the occurrence of wildfires. A comparison of current climatology to future climate projections under different scenarios will be performed.
This evaluation will determine whether the generation and transmission, can ensure energy security for Spain in the coming decades. This aspect is particularly critical if such extreme events become more frequent and intense. To develop these risk maps, initial hazard maps will be created to depict the occurrence of the various natural hazards proposed in this project. Subsequently, vulnerability maps will be generated, incorporating the locations of wind and solar farms, the outlines of major hydrographic basins associated with hydropower generation, and the routes of transmission lines exceeding 220 kV in Spain. These layers of information will be overlaid to assess the risks to these energy generation and transmission sources under current climate conditions. Furthermore, an evaluation will be conducted to determine how these risks may evolve in the coming decade s based on climate projections.
In addition, two case studies will be conducted to develop methodologies for modelling systems that could be validated in an operational/industrial environment. In the first one, a rainfall-runoff model will be calibrated for the Cortes-La Muela Hydropower Complex and the Aldeadávila Hydroelectric Plant to evaluate how the flow rates of these facilities respond to precipitation regime variations identified in the first phases of PRISMAS. Additionally, the performance of a coupled seasonal precipitation prediction and flow modeling system, using the NCAR/MPAS model, will be analyzed to simulate extreme flow events. The second case study will focus on a region in the Pyrenees, spanning parts of Catalonia and Aragón, where a landslide hazard model will be calibrated for a study area with a 220 kV transmission line. This case study will assess the model's capacity to identify high risk areas for landslides and their potential impacts on ROW (Right Of Way) of transmission lines and Spain's energy network. These case studies will serve as practical examples of how the methodologies developed in PRISMAS can be applied to real-world challenges in the energy sector. By demonstrating the potential of advanced computational models for risk assessment, the project aims to provide valuable tools that, if adopted by energy companies, could improve Spain's ability to anticipate and manage the impacts of climatic and meteorological events on critical energy infrastructure.
Project CPP2024-011726 financed by MICIU/AEI /10.13039/501100011033 and ERDF, EU