Tail risk is the risk of rare, high-severity outcomes at the extreme end of the loss distribution — in climate terms, the low-probability event that causes outsized damage.
You're a risk manager with a portfolio that looks safe on average. Its tail tells a different story: three assets could each lose a quarter of their value in a single extreme flood — a concentration the average hides.
Averages hide the events that actually threaten solvency and returns, and climate is fattening the tail. EarthScan quantifies tail outcomes with probabilistic modelling.
It raises the frequency and severity of extreme events, making the rare, large losses in the tail more likely.
