Glossary
Tail risk

Tail risk

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Definition

Tail risk is the risk of rare, high-severity outcomes at the extreme end of the loss distribution — in climate terms, the low-probability event that causes outsized damage.

Example in context

You're a risk manager with a portfolio that looks safe on average. Its tail tells a different story: three assets could each lose a quarter of their value in a single extreme flood — a concentration the average hides.

Why it matters

Averages hide the events that actually threaten solvency and returns, and climate is fattening the tail. EarthScan quantifies tail outcomes with probabilistic modelling.

See your tail exposure

FAQ

Why does climate change increase tail risk?

It raises the frequency and severity of extreme events, making the rare, large losses in the tail more likely.

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